Faustian Weblog

It would appear that there is yet another mutation to the Iraq Insurgency – the Qadiri Sufis. Like some new strain of the H1N1 virus that is supposed to prey on its distant cousin, this is yet another incarnation of Neocon stupidity. The Disney Land Empire – known as America – is going out of its way to promote a mystical brand of Islam in hopes of quenching the Saladin/Crusader narrative known as Al-Qaeda – which was promoted during the Reagan years as antidote to Communism. This is a mistake of monumental proportions. The Middle East is a Petri dish of firebrand cults, forever lacking the cleansing effect of a centralized nation state. The last thing on Earth we need to contend with is a Thelemic version Hezbollah. What these people need in order to truly pacify them are variable rate mortgages, flat screen TVs, and porn on demand – with a tinge of an Islamic Mega Church for nostalgia purposes. The only true answer to this dilemma lies in the nascent consumer paradises of Dubai and Jordan. To defeat radical Islam, one must first destroy the context in which its culture is relevant. We should be building Bedouin Casinos on the reservation with multi-media family tours of a virtual Mecca with consignment shops selling updated and abridged EZ-Korans printed China – illustrated for ten year olds.

Swimming pool
Boat
Plane
Castle in France
Horses
Opus Dei
Mormon Missionaries
Land in Jamaica
Italian Mistress
Special Needs Child
9000 square foot mansion
Pit Bull Terrier
Hummer
Beach House
Livestock
Problem Employees
Sales Guy
New Long Distance service
Windows 7.0
Illegal Aliens
Live in relatives
Pregnant teenagers
Exchange students
Organic wines
Nitrox and Dry Suits
Nascar
Kodak Stock

Frankly, I am getting tired of all these meta-narratives that try to explain historical events by some broader conspiracy theories. Although they may seem to logically hold together, they usually assume a purposefulness that is contradicted by the chaos and sub-optimality of the result these theories purport to engender. I am not specifically referring to such outlandish ideas as the 911 conspiracy that claims that the events on that day are the result of a secret cabal of military industrial fascists bent on gaining control of the world economy, while suppressing civil liberties, but rather the commonly accepted urban legend explanations that the invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan are about gaining control of the remaining world oil supplies, or as Michael Moore would stipulate about helping a rich corporate sponsor such as Unocal protect a profitable pipeline out of the rich Caspian basin, or even Howard Kunstler’s theory about building a police station in the Middle East. No, I reject all such narratives out of hand, as they simply try to explain incoherent secondary effects that no one, including the politicians or the press, predicted before the fact.

My own view is that history is the integral or summation of incremental decisions, which although casually related, fail to tie into a broader narrative that has any purpose whatsoever. And as the global order becomes more complex, each decision is more likely to be an incremental reaction to a previous decision, more localized in nature, and less integrated into a purposeful objective.

What does this mean practically? That the US invasion of Afghanistan was nothing more than a reaction to the events of 911. The US military had to be seen as “doing something”, so it invaded a country to satisfy this objective. End of story. From an Islamic perspective, these same events were nothing more than a reaction to the US military presence in Saudi Arabia after the first Gulf war on the part of Wahhabi nationalists who interpreted the US bases as a form of occupation by a presumed “infidel”. They resorted to terrorism because they lacked the resources to wage a conventional war. Once the US invaded Afghanistan, a new set of realities were put into motion, specifically the protection of US troops in a foreign and hostile land. This was not part of some master plan on the part of Bin Laden to draw us “in”, nor part of a sinister plot on the part of the US military industrial complex to gain control of the remaining oil supplies. If the US actually cared about its oil predicament, which clearly it does not with only 30 billion barrels of conventional crude oil reserves remaining, it would encourage conservation and maybe facilitate the construction of more nuclear power plants. The invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan were about short term political calculations, not about a genuine need to preserve an empire.

General McChrystal plan for stabilizing Afghanistan is primarily motivated by the need to protect US troops, which have been increasingly coming under fire for doing what they have been ordered to do i.e. occupy Afghanistan. He is also trying to clean up a situation that has been horribly neglected for the past eight years. The US military’s job is made easier if it can gather intelligence, which is made easier if it can trade protection services for information. All of this of course requires more troops, which in turn creates a whole new reality.

So what is really going on is a set of incremental deltas that is driving the agenda forward. Each delta in and of itself has an impeccable logic behind it independent of any long term desired outcome. Even the Karzai government, corrupt as it is, has had to make a series of Faustian decisions to stay in power, even at the cost of courting the enemy – the Taliban. A similar chain of events happened in Iraq, for different reasons, and with different outcomes. The issue we need to ask ourselves is whether this reality tunnel is where we want to be in ten years time, or in twenty years time. If the answer is no, then somebody at the top needs to make a purposeful decision – unpopular as it may be, which will eventually steer us into a different outcome.

Even though I support General McChrystal’s efforts and see in his actions a genuine desire to stabilize Afghanistan, I cannot help but think we have further ratcheted up the stakes in this Imperial Faustian game. Every step we take to bring order to the periphery, undoubtedly weakens us at the core through those insidious trade-offs of other roads not taken, other investments not made, and other markets not developed. What we need today is a forward looking leader who has the courage to cut our losses and not waste our resources on side shows that no matter how well intentioned will amount to little more than nation building in a third rate country.

“The days of paying for costly software upgrades are numbered. The PC will soon be obsolete. And BusinessWeek reports 70% of Americans are already using the technology that will replace it. Merrill Lynch calls it ‘a $160 billion tsunami.” Computing giants include IBM, Yahoo! and Amazon are racing to b the first to cash in on this PC-killing revolution.”

First of all nothing could be further from the truth. The PC has been steadily dying for the last 30 years. It the 1980s it was the workstation networked together in token rings that would kill it – who remembers Apollo and Sun? Then it was going to be the low cost X-terminal – what ever happened to that? In 1992, Silicon Graphics introduced the next generation 3D super computer called the Indigo – is that company still around? In the mid 1990s, Sun came out with Java – the network computing language – that was going to provide a gazillion free “applets” that would do everything from editing your word files to brushing your teeth. Fourteen years later, the language is about as popular as PL/1. Now the rage is Google Apps. Presumably, everyone is going to spend the next several years migrating all of their personal data, under their control on low cost PCs that they own, to some privately help corporate storage mechanism that will charge them for the privilege, sell it back to them at a cost, and threaten to delete it and/or sell it to another company unless they pony up more money. The reality is that computing has as much chance of becoming a utility as private transportation does – a mathematical function that tends towards epsilon in the long run. And you can write off the Linux PC, it will never happen; no one has the time to learn how to rebuild a Kernel. Sure, there will be Linux embedded devices, from music players to digital VCRs, but the hub will always be Windows.

Meanwhile the PC has slowly been conquering the world, replacing your stereo system, your phone, your TV, and sometimes even your spouse.

The simple truth is that the PC is like the car, we are just at the beginning of the computer age. It’s a personal device that is liberating to the extreme. In ten years time, there will be three times as many of them, and 80% of them will be upgrades over the current installed base. People will keep on buying them to get faster graphics, more memory, better applications, quicker networks, and smaller form factors.

The PC is here to stay, and MSFT is a good buy. And in twenty years time Apple will be still be running those goofy adds comparing their high end systems (around 5% of the market) to the ones the rest of us buy at Walmart.

In the long run, there are only two consistent reliable shorts in this business: Apple and Google. If past performance is any predictor on future events, whatever short term technological leads these companies have today will be commoditized tomorrow. And the company that will do it will be Microsoft.

When I learned that the Ft. Hood shooter used his own private legally-bought pistol – not a military weapon – to carry out his rampage, I wonder what the NRA would think?

I believe that the answer to this Faustian riddle can be found in the demented words of Mr. Heston:

Perhaps Islamic Fundamentalism was the motivating factor, but our most liberal of gun laws from our most conservative of lobbies enabled this lunatic in more ways than one.

The most google(d) name on the Internet today. His five minute brutal act has garnished the attention of billions. He accomplished nothing. May he be served pork, while awaiting execution.

But this is a Faustian world; by this time next year no one will remember who this guy is.

The democrats are squandering their power lead – this is obvious from the recent election results. If they continue on this path, they will lose the house within the year. And they will deserve it. Our Emperor is a poet, a quality that got him elected, but that is not sufficient for him to govern by. Johnny – a friend of mine in San Jose – got it right. According to him, there are two types of people living in Northern California and by extension the United States. The first, are the thirty some childless couples, working for Adobe Systems, summering in Tibet and wintering in Barbados. They love Obama, endorse same sex marriage, and are champions of social justice. If only everyone were as lucky as they, the world would be a better place. Their stock options are vesting, and they are contemplating buying a second home in the Wine country to retire to – a good investment given the recent foreclosures. These Bobos (as the French are a like to call them) eat organic foods and recycle the waste into organic compost. The second group, are the fifty some laid off former managers, who used to work for Adobe Systems, living in their cars and wintering at a homeless shelter. They could not care less about Obama, or about health care reform, and are stocking up on canned tuna fish and ammunition. They vote for Sarah Palin simply because it pisses off their former employees (now turned bosses) at Adobe Systems.

The mistake our Emperor is making is quite natural. He is trying to live by good intentions alone. The crowd has called for blood, and unless it is forthcoming, this man has no future. Compromise is not an option. The playbook is simple. Obama must follow Putin’s lead and find an American version of Mikhail Khodorkovsky to indict and jail on trump up charges. My first suggestion would be to target some former executive at Goldman Sachs, or other prominent Wall Street firm, and crucify him (or her, or them) publicly. This will only be effective if the proceedings are openly unjust and completely arbitrary. My second suggestion would be to actively isolate those dissenting Democrats who are stalling on Health Care; Senator Kent Conrad from North Dakota comes to mind, and punish their actions by undermining their reelection campaigns, even as much as backing their Republican opposition. Ambiguity in one’s own camp should not be tolerated. My third suggestion would be to openly back General Stanley McChrystal in Afghanistan and provide him with double the troop strength he is asking for, but at the same time actively orchestrate the downfall of Hamid Karzai. Good Generals are hard to find, but proxy leaders at the fringe of the Empire should never be allowed to feel secure. If an example can be made of this rogue puppet, the rest will fall in line quickly – specifically Asif Ali Zardari the President of Pakistan. My final suggestion would be to find some fire and brimstone Evangelical preacher (not an African American) who can give a religious dimension to this effort. Someone like Tony Campolo comes to mind. The common people must be entertained and given a moral purpose.

But none of this will happen, poets cannot be taught how to act like Princes unless they endorse the Faustian reality they live in.

I like General Stanley McChrystal – he is pretty much the best we have to offer. I fear however that he is following in the footsteps of George Maniakes – a Byzantine General in the later part of that declining Empire in the early eleventh century. In this familiar playbook, we have a superb soldier – leading his country to great victory in Sicily – only to be betrayed back home by intrigues outside of his control. Sometimes, no amount of talent can overcome a helpless hand.

The Normans thugs, like the Taliban today, found themselves the beneficiaries of these palace squabbles and internecine feuds.

One definitely gets the impression that no matter what this Afghan joker has to say, it’s not going to impress him. The body language says it all.

The Afghanistan war is the ultimate Faustian conflict. From every angle it’s a make pretend war.

First, we pretend that Al Qaeda is still there, which they aren’t as they have moved on to Pakistan. The Karzai government pretends to promote democracy and transparency, which they don’t, as they steal the country blind both of its electorate and of its finances. The military leadership pretends that 40,000 additional troops will be sufficient to crush a 35 year insurgency and civil war, which it won’t because even the Soviets couldn’t manage. The civilian leadership pretends to be backing the military leadership, which they’re not and have no intention of doing. The Republican party pretends that if they were in charge they would send in more troops, which they wouldn’t as their paltry track record would attest. The military contractors pretend that their million dollar techno wizardry will defeat a cave dwelling enemy in thongs with AK47s. The Afghan farmers pretend to grow anything else than marijuana and opium, which they aren’t because no other cash crop can feed them. We pretend to believe that the Afghans will give up their favorite pastime of stoning widows and apostates if only they could get HBO. The NATO allies – France, Britain, and Germany – pretend that their military contingents are willing to fight, even less patrol, which they have no intention of doing. The Pakistani army pretends that it is defeating the Taliban in Waziristan, when in fact they are actually losing. The Pakistani President – Asif Ali Zardari – pretends to promote the rule of law and fight terrorism, while he is robbing his country blind, building more nukes, and siphoning off the US aid into a Swish bank account. The American public pretends to care but would rather watch the next episode of Survivor.

The only person not pretending is the American soldier having to duke it out at a remote outpost in the middle of nowhere, getting shot at, and dying. And who at this point is starting to get seriously pissed off at all the rest of the jokers in this deck.